Rafael shows signs of weakening in the coming days in the Gulf of Mexico

Rafael made landfall as a category 3 storm last Wednesday afternoon in Cuba. Its sustained winds were 115 mph, with gusts up to 140 mph. The central pressure was recorded at 956 MB. This is the first major hurricane since Michelle in 2001 to impact Cuba.

As of Sunday, Rafael will remain a tropical storm through late tonight and Monday morning before weakening to a tropical depression. It will eventually turn towards the south-southwest by Tuesday, then to a weak remnant area low. The storm’s weakening will likely happen as upper-level wind shear increases across the Gulf of Mexico. Areas along the Gulf Coast states could see higher surf and rip currents through Monday afternoon.

It’s rare for a tropical storm or hurricane to impact ENC this late in the season. In the past 30 years, only Hurricane Eta (2020) and Hurricane Gordon (1994) have moved within 200 miles of our coastline in November. Regarding landfalling hurricanes in November in the U.S., it’s only happened 4 times in the last 170 years. Three were in Florida: Nicole in 2022, Kate in 1985, and Yankee in 1935. The 4th was Expedition, which hit North Carolina back in 1861.

A tropical wave continues to show little signs of organization over the next few days. The probability of development is at 10% over the coming days. This system is forecasted to head westward towards the eastern Bahamas and could see heavy rainfall and gusty winds this week.

For continuous updates on the 2024 hurricane season, download the free WITN First Alert Weather App, available in both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store. It’s the fastest way to get the latest advisories, track storms in real time, and receive any warnings issued for your area.