Tropical development chances are lowering this weekend

The tropical wave in the deep Atlantic that we have been monitoring since late August continues to show low formation. As of Saturday, it is holding at a 30% chance of development. Since Friday afternoon, the chances of development continued to drop as this system is running into drier air over the Atlantic from Saharan Dust.

Heading into next week, model guidance is trying to show slowly regaining strength, but it will take a few days to get organized again.

Despite its weakening and drier air interfering, we could see a tropical depression or tropical storm sometime mid-next week. While it is still hundreds of miles away from the East Coast, the future track and intensity of the system remain uncertain at this time. The next name on the list is Gabrielle.

Even though we are heading into peak season, tropical development normally starts to get busy. However, this is the only system we are tracking. There are no other systems in the Atlantic Basin or Gulf Coast region. Hurricane peak season runs from mid-September through late October.

With six named storms so far this hurricane season, we have been running ahead of schedule since June. On average, the G-name storm usually forms around September 3rd. We might be waiting a while until we get a named storm over the coming days or weeks.

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