First track for Potential Sara

The National Hurricane Center is issuing updates on Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 (soon to be Sara) in the Caribbean. As of the afternoon update, winds were near 35 mph with higher gusts. Sara is likely to form later tonight or on Thursday. Once Sara forms, a high-pressure system to the north will keep Sara in the Caribbean through the weekend. Weak-steering currents and warm sea-surface temperatures will favor organization and intensification for Sara.

Heading into early next week, high pressure will reposition far enough to the east over Hispanola and the Bahamas, allowing Sara to recurve northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Cold fronts and strong wind shear often protect the United States from receiving direct hits from tropical systems. However, interest areas from the Big Bend and West Coast of Florida, to the Keys need to keep a close eye on the system.

If Sara makes landfall along the Florida Coast as a hurricane, it will be the 4th hurricane on record to hit the state in November. The last storms to impact Florida this late in the season were Nicole (2022), Kate (1985), and “Yankee” (1935).

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