Tropical Update: As one system weakens, another maintains
Both systems continue to move westward across the deep Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor two possible developments in the deep Atlantic through the weekend. The first area has a low chance of development. The second area remains a medium chance of developing.
Increasing upper-level winds have weakened the first area. The probability of developing into a tropical depression or named storm over the next seven days is now 10%. Forecast models are now indicating further weakening of the system as it heads towards the Caribbean Sea this weekend.
The Saharan Dust Model has picked up on the potential system. The key to this system’s potential survival over the next few days will be to keep warm, moist air open to its southern flank as long as possible.
The second area of low pressure sits behind the first system. This is located midway between the African coast and the Antilles. The system is holding at a 40% chance of tropical development over the next seven days and a 30% chance over the next 48 hours. We’ll see if it can find success trailing the first system as the Saharan Dust and wind shear remain active this time of year.
As the peak season is nearing late month through the fall season, it only takes one storm to become a memorable year in the Atlantic Basin. Thankfully, we have avoided that so far.
Based on climatological records, the average D-name storm forms around August 15th, and the E-name storm around August 22nd. Dolly and Edouard are up next on the list for this hurricane season.
Stay with WITN’s First Alert Weather Team as we keep an eye on the tropics through the last summer and fall season and see if we could have any impacts to Eastern North Carolina with the heart of the season underway.
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