New Bern proves population is growing more than U.S. Census admits

NEW BERN, N.C. (WITN) - The City of New Bern has successfully challenged census data that officials say did not accurately reflect the city’s growing population.

The city petitioned census estimates from 2021 through 2023 through the U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Challenge Program after officials believed the data released were incorrect.

City officials say the data, which is released by the Census each May and reflects population estimates as of July 1st of the previous year, had showed slow growth trends in 2021 and 2023, as well as a negative population estimate for 2022.

Officials say city staff researched new housing construction and other developments over the three-year period that would have proved otherwise.

Staff collected several documents and spreadsheets of approved building permits, new housing, demolition permits, annexations and utility connections that would be used to petition the numbers.

The U.S. Census Bureau allowed the city to file its petition to challenge all three years at one time, and admitted there were errors in the state’s building permit survey relative to actual building activity.

The new population estimates for New Bern will be:

• 2021: 31,786 (an increase of 268 over census estimate)
• 2022: 32,508 (instead of losing 2, the city gained 992 over the census estimate)
• 2023: 33,758 (an increase of 1,532 over the census estimate)

Mayor Jeffrey Odham said concerns about the numbers began in 2020, noting, “New Bern was still recovering from Hurricane Florence. Many of our residents had addresses here, but they didn’t live here while their homes were being repaired, so they weren’t counted in the decennial census. Then COVID hit, and census takers stopped in-person visits.”

Census data is used to allocate billions of dollars of federal funding to states and communities.

If a municipality is undercounted, its share of the funds can be cut short, impacting programs like Medicaid and social services, as well as funding for local schools, hospitals and public works.

New Bern has successfully challenged its population estimates before in 2004 and 2005.