First Alert Forecast: Severe weather threat fails to materialize
A combination of early rain, cooler temperatures and insufficient lift lead to a calmer day than anticipated
Risk of Severe Storms This Evening:
The threat of severe weather was gone today before it started due to a few different factors here in the East. First off, temperatures didn’t get warm enough to create a sufficiently buoyant atmosphere (read: not enough lift to support thunderstorms). If warm air rises, today’s air was a long way from “warm”. Most areas were looking at temperatures in the mid 60s when the rain arrived, not nearly warm enough to power severe weather with today’s cold frontal setup.
Second, the rain light rain came in early and often, creating a more stable atmosphere by keeping the temperatures cool. Severe weather thrives on an unstable environment, and today it failed to come to fruition over the East.
Third, the size of the low helped cloud up the skies ahead of the cold front, pushing the “sweet spot” for severe weather further south. This system will continue to produce dangerous conditions for southern Alabama, southern Georgia and northern Florida tonight, but those storms will struggle to feature any sort of northerly movement, keeping them a safe distance from us.
Our next chance of strong thunderstorms comes next Friday, however it is still too far away to call for any sort of certainty regarding severe weather.