First, let’s step back and see how our March forecast verified:
For March the forecast was for an “average” month regarding the temperatures. Through the last 30 days we had our extremes, but after calculating through Wednesday, we averaged about 62° for our afternoon highs. The average for March is 63°, which means March finished a bit cooler by roughly a degree. Precipitation officially came in around 3.84”. The forecast was for a below average March thanks in part to La Niná. The average rainfall for March is 4.07”. Overall it has been a cooler March and a drier one (by about .23”). Not a bad forecast!
The last time we got together and talked about an extended forecast I mentioned the influence of cooler Pacific sea surface temperatures (La Nina). Not much has changed since then except that the outlook for a weaker La Nina by June is slowly coming together. As sea surface temperatures return to normal, our monthly trends will also follow suit. That being said, April should come through about, if not slightly below average. The second week of April may snap us back into some cooler air, but overall we should rebound to the April average of 71°/72°.
The precipitation forecast may be a little trickier to pin down. As La Nina weakens, we would then infer/forecast a slightly wetter month, but with a lack of moisture in the air and in the ground (think soil moisture evaporation), the two factors may cancel out to a monthly rainfall total around 3.19”.
For the remaining months, May & June be sure to click the video.