After whiffing at a traditional winter and breaking over 15,000 temperature records through the nation in March, a common question has inevitably come up…a lot, “Does this warm trend mean our summer will be really hot too?” Historically, the warmest month during the year is July (~79°) and the obvious correlation is to assume a warm winter means a warm summer. But what does 59 years of temperature data say about “marching” towards this assumption? Click the video to see what was discovered.

Worth Noting
-Average Temperature for March, 53.04°
-Average Temperature this March, 61.1°

-2012 Became the warmest March on record
-Warmest March prior to 2012, 1976 (58.63°)

-Consecutive years March came in above average:
-‘72-’77 (5 years)*
-’82-’83 (2 years)
-’85-’86 (2 years)
-’88-’91 (4 years)
-’02-’04 (3 years)
-’07-’08 (2 years)
-’11- Present

*Prior to 1972 March recorded 7 consecutive years below average (’65-71).

The results came back pretty inconclusive, but very telling. Inconclusive doesn’t mean the work was a waste of time, rather, it means that despite a very warm March we are in no way guaranteed an above average July.

Raw Data (59 years, New Bern NWS Office):

14 times an above average March = An above average July

15 times an above average March = A below average July

12 times a below average March = An above average July

18 times a below average March = an above average July