Where We Go From Here:
The way we put together long-range forecasts, outlooks that go beyond 7 days, is by analyzing global circulations. The most prominent forecasting tool is found with temperature changes in the Pacific. Last year we were in a strong La Nina (temperatures cooler than average in the Pacific), but in the new year, La Nina is beginning to weaken.
Typically in any La Nina year we can expect warmer and drier conditions through the east during the winter months. Moving into spring nothing has indicated a change to the warm and dry pattern we had in December and January, despite her weakening. In fact, some of the data is even hinting at a March capable of breaking temperature records. I guess if given the choice, it's more tolerable to break temperature records in March rather than June.
If you click the video, the forecast for eastern Carolina for the next three months has us warmer than average with a rain deficient through May. The dry conditions will persist, but it’ll be very difficult to replicate the extreme drought conditions we experienced last summer.
Average Highs and Lows:
March – 64°/40°
April – 73°/49°
May – 80°/57°
March – 4.00”
April – 3.17”
May – 3.85”
A Note About Severe Weather Season:
It is very easy to be on edge regarding this year’s severe weather season. Combine last year’s record event with an early 2012 tornado outbreak and anyone would have some nerves about Mother Nature’s intentions. You may run across articles using the phrase “severe weather season has started early”. While this may be true, this does not mean the severe weather season will be longer. Think of the atmosphere moving up the severe weather season, not extending it.
Historically, Eastern Carolina has a peak "tornado season" between the months of March and June. However, the threat of a tornado is never zero and is possible between now and November