Pretty average, if not below average set-up for the month of November. The long rang models are keeping the tropics quiet as we empty the shelves of the important ingredients needed for hurricanes. I could see one maybe two named storms by the time we start singing Christmas carols, but all will likely stay well away from any landmass. Coming up at the end of the month we will recap the hurricane season and get an idea of how the forecasts shaped up for 2011. Check out the video for a historical reference on the tropics in November.
Why the November Drop:
The fall season is basically a transition period between Summer and Winter. Early in the fall season, tropical storms tend to form off the remains of strong Canadian cold fronts, thus, the reason for watching the Sunshine state (Florida) for a quick tropical spin-up in October. The sharp air temperature contrasts isn't as prevalent in November and the focus for tropical development shifts well south, off the Yucatan peninsula. Additionally, the warm sea surface temperatures tend to shift south as well. As mentioned in the video, November brings about the finale "gasp" of the tropical season. The numbers drop significant and the strength of any formation is no where near what we would find at the height of the season.
Hurricane Kate was the last November tropical system to make its way into eastern Carolina. After making Landfall on the western side of Florida in 1985, she quickly became extra-tropical dropping 4 inches of rain through the area and registering 35 mile per hour wind gusts.
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