Update: Matt's World Of Weather: White Christmas Forecast

Bookmark this story or follow me on Twitter (@EngelWx). I’ll be updating the forecast through Christmas to reflect the latest data regarding our chances of seeing a white Christmas.

Saturday Update
With only three days until Christmas, it is pretty much a done deal that Santa Claus's sleigh will be on wheels this year. The way the atmosphere is setting up, it doesn't take a Little Orphan Annie ring to decode that rain will be the favored precipitation for our Tuesday. Personally, I don't know what would be more embarrassing, forecasting a white Christmas for eastern Carolina, or donning a pink bunny suit (onesie edition).

The moisture is there, but the cold air just isn't in place for snow in eastern Carolina this year. Like unwrapping socks on Christmas morning, it is a little disappointing and unfortunately it won't be the last time we encounter this situation.

For those who haven't been so nice this year, consider stashing the coal away for use later in the week. A cold front next week will leave temperatures in the upper 40s Thursday and Friday...just keep your tongue away from any flag poles in the area.

I’ll give the (un)official White Christmas Outlook….1 snowflakes

(un)Official White Christmas Outlook legend:
Each snowflake represents a greater possibility of having a white Christmas

No snowflakes=Rollerblading Santa and no snow

1 Snowflake = Waiting on a Christmas miracle!

100 Snowflakes = Skiing Santa and snow for Christmas.

White Christmas Outlook: 11 snowflakes

A White Christmas?
Each year we have a 3% chance of having a White Christmas (1” of snow on the ground). To put it another way, Santa has a 97% chance of outfitting his sleigh with wheels each year.

Be that as it may, this Christmas is looking increasingly interesting… at least more interesting than the outlook last year. The cold air we’ve been missing all December is still bottled up along the Canada/US border, but data is hinting that the cap could come off late this week and into next weekend.

Now before you make a run to the store for a “Hammerhead Pro XLD Snow Sled w/ Steering System” (retail $399.00) keep in mind that cold air is only half of the snow equation. Like breakfast cereal needs milk, cold air needs moisture to properly make snow. Unfortunately any system carrying this key ingredient will either pass well to our north (New England), or won’t make it all the way to eastern Carolina.

The latest data has a system possibly dropping nearly 6 to 8 inches of snow in northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

Follow me on Twitter (@EngelWx) to receive notification of when the story has been updated. Also, be sure to check out the video for more information about typical Christmas conditions here in eastern Carolina. Some of the statics may surprise you.


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