NOAA Updates Forecast For Busy Hurricane Season

Forecasters have slightly reduced predictions for this year's hurricane season.

Each August the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revisits their hurricane outlook from May and adjusts the forecast based on current climate trends. Below is the updated outlook for the remainder of the 2013 Atlantic Tropical Season.

August Outlook
Named Storms: 13 to 19
Hurricanes: 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher)
Major Hurricanes: 3 to 5

Previous Outlook:
Named Storms: 13 to 20
Hurricanes: 7 to 11 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher)
Major Hurricanes: 3 to 6
*Includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian*

Comparatively, the forecast is very similar to the one issued three months ago. The May forecast called for " extreme levels of activity", this has been reduced slightly. Still, as explained Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the early tropical formations we've seen this year is an indication of where the season could be heading: “...two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.” These totals DO NOT reflect landfalling hurricanes. However, Coastal Carolina University has taken a stab at forecasting East Coast impacts, see the link below. CCU will be publishing their updated forecast in a few days.

Click here for the story regarding their research and approach:
Matt's World Of Weather: Predicting A Landfall Hurricane Nearly 6 Months In Advance

For more information on other factors impacting the forecast visit this link.


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