North Carolina Is Leaning Towards McCain

By: Liz Sidoti - AP
By: Liz Sidoti - AP

An analysis of the state-by-state race to 270 electoral votes between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.

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SOLID Obama

States: California (55), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Massachusetts (12), Maryland (10), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington state (11)

Electoral votes: 190

Analysis: Democratic bastions on both coasts, and Obama's home state of Illinois, are all but guaranteed to side with him. Washington state is worth watching and Oregon could slip to the "lean Obama" category. Obama is comfortably ahead in both, but polls tend to tighten in the final months. Maine is the same; McCain may compete for one of the state's electoral votes, which are distributed by congressional district.

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LEAN Obama

States: Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Pennsylvania (21)

Electoral votes: 38

Analysis: Obama has a slight edge in these perennial battlegrounds states, though they could become toss-ups in the coming weeks. Both Republicans and Democrats cite polling that show Obama in the lead in Minnesota, but the GOP holds its national convention there and that could change the dynamic. A recent public survey put Obama ahead in Iowa, which George W. Bush barely won in 2004, but also shows McCain has started to close the gap. Pennsylvania is trending toward Obama - and the running mate choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, a Scranton native with working-class appeal, will help - but McCain is playing hard for it and could erase the Democratic lead.

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TOTAL Obama

17 states, the District of Columbia and 228 votes.

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SOLID McCain

States: Alabama (9), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3).

Electoral votes: 139

Analysis: McCain should easily win his Arizona home state, though Obama is watching for an opening there. Arkansas, South Dakota, Texas are others Democrats say they may go after, but there's no public polling to prove that's anything more than just talk. Obama could try to win an electoral vote in Nebraska, where votes are divvied up by congressional district and where advertising intended for Iowans is seen in the east.

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LEAN McCain

States: Alaska (3), Georgia (15), Indiana (11), Missouri(11), Montana (3), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3),

Electoral votes: 61

Analysis: McCain has narrow-to-moderate advantages in these states. Obama has put all but Missouri into play by advertising in them as McCain all but ignores them. Those six have long Republican-voting histories that Republicans are confident will prevail. Missouri is a bellwether that may end up moving to the too-close-to-call category. Republicans and Democrats say McCain has a slim lead.

TOTAL McCain

24 states and 200 votes.

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TOSSUPS:

States: Colorado (9), Florida (27), Michigan (17), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10)

Electoral votes: 110

Analysis: Nine states are too close to call, though it's possible the candidates will open up leads in some. Virginia is the only one that wasn't hotly contested in the last election. Democrats are emboldened in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico by an influx of left-leaning Hispanic residents. Big-prize Ohio and Florida probably won't be decided until the end. New Hampshire has been tipping Democratic, but McCain is keeping it close, given his bond there after independents helped him win GOP primaries twice. Private polling shows the race recently having tightened in Democratic-held Wisconsin and Michigan.

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  • by Obama Snake Oil Co Location: Washington on Aug 26, 2008 at 11:45 AM
    Since I am the only one without binders that watch all networks, my comments are objective. Fox reported the unpopular events long before the networks did. Facts. Rev Wright, Ayers, Obama's brother....fact. None of the other networks that treat this like Camelot said anything about it until Fox brought it up. This means that the things that mater on a canidate are not kept away from us to use for out decision. Yes, this maters as integrity an moral behavior mater to me. I can absolutely tell you that if McCain has anything in his past, Fox would bring it on. They have no blinders as you suggest. You just don't like the station because it reveals the truth and you cannot handle the truth. But isn't it just great, we will still be a red state no mater how much libs whine.
  • by WayRight Location: Washington, NC on Aug 26, 2008 at 11:08 AM
    Like a lot of folks in this state, I have a job. I work, they pay me. I pay my taxes and the government distributes my taxes as it sees fit. In order to get that paycheck, I am required to pass a random urine test with which I have no problem. What I do have a problem with is the distribution of my taxes to people who don't have to pass a urine test. Shouldn't one have to pass a urine test to get a welfare check because I have to pass one to earn it for them? Please understand, I have no problem with helping people get back on their feet. I do, on the other hand, have a problem with helping someone sitting on their rear, doing drugs, while I work. . . . Can you imagine how much money the state would save if people had to pass a urine test to get a public assistance check? The Democrats are for give away programs. If Obama wins, a little change is all you will have in your pocket!
  • by Trucker Location: NC on Aug 26, 2008 at 11:04 AM
    To Mack, I guess you proved you can't believe everything you see or hear on the internet :)
  • by McCain Snake Oil Co on Aug 26, 2008 at 10:51 AM
    Fox News is very biased in their coverage. Take off your "blinders" and realize it. They are no better than the other news stations other than they tell you what you want to believe. It is funny how people still argue about these two as if they are America's saviors. Neither one has the answer and neither one is going to do much good. What we need is a President who actually reads the Constitution and fights for the American people and not just democrats and republicans. Washington warned us about factions and how they will tear this country apart. Guess what happened! BTW McCain may be in the middle, but it doesn't mean his "supporters" are. Rabid democrats and republicans only see blue or red.
  • by Mack Location: NC on Aug 26, 2008 at 10:47 AM
    No I am not in a red state thank you, YOU know that it is not over until it is over. Obama does not need NC to take the Whitehouse and you know that Snake or maybe you don't know that LMAO
  • by Obama Snake Oil Co Location: Washington on Aug 26, 2008 at 09:55 AM
    LOL, Mack you are in a red state. Obama has already lost here. I guess you will have to hate McCain without reason since it is your partys way. We live in the greatest country in the world. Yes, we have some problems, but nowhere in the world do you have what we have here. I love my country.
  • by Mack Location: NC on Aug 26, 2008 at 08:18 AM
    Oh my what people say when they are envious LMAO. I just hope some day the people that vote and the candidates grow up some so they can turn this country around before it is to late, oops it is already to late.
  • by Obama Snake Oil Co Location: Washington on Aug 26, 2008 at 07:47 AM
    I think in a time when facts and fiction is important that some will not watch Fox network. Of all the networks reporting on the facts, liberals will never watch since it reveals the truth the other networks hide. I watch all of them to see what is going on and not putting blinders on. Our countries future is too important for that. Why would I vote for either canidate? Which one had "my best" and my countries "best interrest" in their scope. I have no warm a fuzzy feeling about Obama due to his past years dealings. McCain has no history over many years, of doing the right thing. Yes, he is in the middle but sometimes these make the best Presidents.
  • by bigfruitbasket Location: Greenville on Aug 26, 2008 at 06:26 AM
    I'd like to see how these folks got their data. It all sounds a bit suspicious to me. Pollsters tell lies with statistics all the time, no matter who you choose to vote for.
  • by Red Location: Greenville on Aug 26, 2008 at 06:18 AM
    Not voting for inexperience. Come back in 4 to 8 years Obama.
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