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Hurricane Season: Quiet Or Busy?


On average, hurricane season produces two hurricanes by August 28th. With no hurricanes thus far, it may seem like a quiet season. But looking at the statistics, the tropics haven't been exactly "quiet". We have had six named tropical storms. The average from June 1st to August 31st is five named storms, putting our current number in the "above average" category.

At the start of the season, the National Weather Service forecasted an above average year for hurricane and tropical storm development. While there haven't been any hurricanes, conditions have been active. Lead forecaster for the National Climatic Data Center Gerry Bell, Ph.D. recently said "our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized... Also, [three] of the [six] named storms to-date formed in the deep Atlantic, which is an indicator of an active season".

So as we head in to September, the likelihood of an increase in hurricane and tropical storm activity is expected, despite the lack of hurricanes thus far.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/cum-average_Atl_1966-2009.gif


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