We saw one of the coldest shots of the season last weekend across our area. Temperatures fell into the 20s but wind chills made it feel closer to 10° or lower at times. It is a faded memory now as temperatures quickly rebounded this week. We have been unable to sustain the cold air this winter season. It has not only been true for us but for much of the United States as well. The coming week shows little change. There will be a couple of bouts of rainfall but temperatures will stay in the seasonable range most of the time.
I've had many questions about whether it will snow before the winter is over. Obviously, we really haven't been threatened by any storms this season and our chances are dwindling with every day as spring approaches. Generally speaking, chances for significant snow are over by the middle of March in our area although I've seen light snow and flurries in April. The La Nina weather pattern (cold water in the central equatorial Pacific region) is not conducive for sustained cold air in our area. Yes, we do see an occasional outbreak of cold air into our area but a storm would have to hit us quickly since air cold enough for snow will not last long this year. I don't really see many changes to the overall forecast over the next week to 10 days.
I'll still go with my forecast that we'll need some luck to see much, if any snow, this winter. Next year could be a different story since a mild El Nino is expected to develop. El Nino typically means more cold air and southern storms but that is next winter. Meanwhile, most of us are enjoying the lower heating bills this season. Just remember that next winter is likely to be more of what we've had the previous two winters.
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