Winter Forecast Indicates Near Normal Temperatures

The Climate Prediction Center is expecting a near normal winter for North Carolina.

Forecasting weather several months ahead has always been a difficult task.  As with any forecast, we know that weather conditions can change.  Regardless, the art of long-range forecasting has made great strides over the past few decades.  I was reviewing the Climate Prediction Center's latest forecast for the winter season.  The forecast indicates that eastern North Carolina will have near normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.  It appears that December and January will be the coldest relative to normal  As the season progresses, I expect the subtropical ridge to get established off the Southeast coast and that should allow above normal temperatures to return.  In a nutshell, the current forecast calls for a chilly start to winter then a change to warmer conditions by February and March.  It would be similar to last winter if that forecast holds, but not quite as cold.  I'll update the season as we get closer. 

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  • by Brandon Location: ENC on Sep 21, 2011 at 10:08 AM
    After a while, I'm finally back. I think this year is going to be just like last year with the exception that instead of cold coming from the north, it will come from the Northwest. The trough will extend from the Midwest to about Myrtle beach, northward. South of there it will be warm. I think we will see colder temps the end of November lasting through mid-February, then a second shot in March. NAO looks to go Negative with the AO, PDO looks to go positive, and solar activity is low. Also, tropical systems take heat from the tropics and redistribute it. Now that fall is almost here, that heat will not regenerate farther north and as the tropics slow down, they will not bring it north either. Therefore, I think we will see Below average temps, maybe a LITTLE less harsh than last year, and above average precip. I don't think our snow will come from little systems, I think our snows, potentially big, will be lows phasing offshore and deepening as they lifting Northeast.

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