Several times a year a Colorado State University team of researchers led by the guru of tropical forecasting, Dr. William Gray, update the total number of tropical systems expected for the season.  For now Dr. Gray's team are convinced there should be an active season in the Atlantic Basin.  An average season includes 10 named storms, of which 6 should become hurricanes and 2 should be major.  The current forecast indicates that we should have 15 named storms, of which 8 should become hurricanes and 4 should be major.  The main reasons for a more active season include warmer water in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and a weakening El Nino.  The El Nino last year brought considerable wind shear and that caused problems for tropical systems that tried to develop.