The first quarter of the tropical season is complete without a hint of development in the tropical Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico. It is not unusual to reach August before we have a named storm but some years have seen two or three storms by the middle of July. The overall situation in the Atlantic Ocean is very different this year. There is considerable wind shear south of latitude 25° so any system trying to develop in that area will likely get ripped apart. As the season progresses there is reason to believe that any significant development of a tropical or subtropical system would occur north of 25°. The most likely time for development would be from the middle of August to October. Even though the total number of storms is expected to be lower this year, there are notable low-number years when at least one major hurricane hit the United States. In the meantime let's enjoy the quiet times.
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