The month of June is usually not that active for tropical storm formation but one system becomes named an average of once every two years. There has been little tropical activity so far this month but an area of disturbed weather has developed in the western Caribbean over the past 24 hours. The system will move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday night and Saturday so development is not likely for the next 24 hours. The system should emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday afternoon and there is a possibility some development could occur at that time.
The overall tropical outlook continues to indicate a near normal season of 10 named storms, of which 6 should become hurricanes and 2 intense hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher. Those numbers would be much lower than what we've seen over the past several years. Of course, the total number of storms don't matter as much as whether one decides to hit our area. We should know the answer to that over the next few months.