Seasonal Forecasts Are Difficult

By: WITN Weather
By: WITN Weather

Forecasting several months in advance is difficult but its still worth the effort.

About this time every year we start hearing about the winter forecast.  You get a variety of predictions depending on who you trust the most.  For example the Old Farmers Almanac came out with a prediction of a harsh winter for much of the country with heavy snowfall across portions of the Midwest and Northeast.  That forecast is probably one we don't won't to hear since our heating bills are likely to be much higher this year.  On the other hand, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a mild winter for much of the nation, except in the Northeast where temperatures will average above normal.  They expect precipitation to average near normal except in the Southeast where dry conditions are expected.  If you play it down the middle you get a normal winter for the United States.  Forecasting weeks and months ahead is difficult at best and this year's winter forecast makes you wonder just who is telling the truth. 
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  • by Greg Judy Location: Washington, NC on Sep 26, 2008 at 07:43 AM
    I like to see and hear seasonal forecasts, especially one month out. That way they are based on more than long or short term trends.
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