Wed Aug 13 18:48:29 PDT 2008
Active Hurricane Season Likely
An active tropical season is likely this year as half of the averaged number of named storms have formed by August 13.
An active hurricane season is likely this year and you only have to look at the current date to see what I mean. It is August 13 and five storms have already been named in the Atlantic Basic, which includes the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. In an average season we usually see 10 named storms. The mid-season peak for tropical storms and hurricanes is September 10 so it is quite likely we'll see a few more than 10 storms. In previous active years the fifth named storm of the season did not occur until later than the current date. For example, we had three hurricane strikes in North Carolina in 1955 but the fourth named storm of the season did not arrive until the middle of August. In 1996 there were two hurricane strikes and one tropical storm strike. The fifth named storm that year didn't occur until late August. Three years later in 1999 we once again had two hurricane strikes and one tropical storm hit. That year the fifth named storm developed in late August. What this implies is the heart of the hurricane season is just coming upon us now. Ocean temperatures are rising and wind shear is decreasing. These factors point to increasing tropical activity in the weeks ahead.