Wow!!! What a spring it has been here in the East. Unlike last year when every chance for rain and storms seemed to fall apart, this year has been the opposite. Even the most benign storms systems have been able to produce rain, storms and even severe weather.
This change has required myself and the rest of the weather team to change our forecast methods. Last summer and fall when we were in the midst of the severe drought we often downplayed rain chances no matter how good it looked on paper. So far this spring we're quickly learning to not underestimate any storm system. In fact we're playing them up just because of the weather pattern we are in...it just wants to storm.
Sunday night was the prime example of this. All of the forecast models we look at suggested just a minimal chance of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday. At best, the models were showing 20% to 30% rain chances. Well, 100% of Eastern Carolina ended up with the rain Sunday Night. Most of you likely noticed the blast of winds with those storms as well.
Well here we are again with another storm on our doorstep for Tuesday. The ingredients are there for some strong to severe storms so guess what we are going to forecast??? Yes! Severe storms. Certainly this is nothing like the last round of severe storms on Mother's Day, but some strong winds and large hail are possible with the storms late Tuesday.
Coming up this week I'll have some more thoughts on our active spring including when and why we decide to break into programming to talk about severe weather.
Leave your comments and questions here and we can get a good conversation going!
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