A cold front pushed off the North Carolina coast Monday night and will be followed by cooler and drier air for midweek. Afternoon highs will be in the middle 80s while overnight lows will dip into the middle 60s. It will remain dry through Thursday except for a stray shower or two.
Moisture will be increasing later in the week as the Bermuda High builds westward and closer to the Southeast coast. A deep, rich and moist southerly flow will develop by Friday, with a 30% risk of a shower. A typical early August weekend will be on tap with highs in the middle to upper 80s, with a 30% to 40% risk of showers each day.
A tropical disturbance will bear watching over the next several days. The system is moving slowly westward and will be in the vicinity of Puerto Rico by late Saturday or Sunday. It has a decent chance of becoming our second named tropical storm. It would be called Bertha should it develop. There is still uncertainty on the track beyond Puerto Rico. Some of the computer models suggest the system will not develop significantly due to shear and dry air. We'll continue to watch the system carefully for the next several days.
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