The official start to the Atlantic hurricane season is still nearly a week away, but already there is a system east of the Bahamas, which could move close to the Outer Banks in the days to come. There is the possibility of this system becoming a "warm core" system which could possibly lead to a named storm. At this point the consensus is that the low could be a hybrid system as it heads to the northwest. "Hybrid" means the storm will take on some tropical characteristics, and non tropical characteristics. The chilly water around our neck of the woods would definitely work against the system. The latest computer models keep the center of circulation well off shore, especially the GFS model. The European model, in earlier runs, brought the system much closer to the coast, with the most recent runs keep it further out to sea, like the GFS. In any case our flow will pick up from the east, with an increasingly moist flow, leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms, as we move into Monday. The best chances for rain will come Monday into Tuesday, with decreasing rain chances after that. It's a good idea to stay tuned for later forecast, because a system in this position is always something to watch for us. Thank goodness it's not July or August with a circulation east of the Bahamas.
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